History would indicate that the S&P 500 should finish the year higher from where we finished this quarter. When the S&P 500 has gained at least 10% in the first quarter, it has continued to rise for the last nine months of the year 85% of the time. The median return for the last nine months of the year has been 7%.
Another favorable statistic is there have been three other periods with sharp quarterly declines (see the chart below) since the Great Recession. In each situation, the subsequent two quarters have produced a fantastic performance.
Another great sign is the S&P 500 just performed what is called in the financial industry “a golden cross” formation (see chart below). This is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. It is a sign of strong upward price movement in the index. Historically, the S&P 500’s gets an 8.89% average annual return when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, dating back to November 19, 1929. Conversely, the S&P 500 loses 0.53% when it performs a “death cross,” when the 50 crosses below the 200-day moving average. This Golden Cross is a good sign for things to come.
So get out there! Get your money working harder for you. If you’d like to have a free evaluation of your portfolio or a complimentary financial plan, please feel free to contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
This website is solely for informational purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Polaris Wealth Advisory Group unless an investment management agreement is in place.